Expert: Putin will have to be a President till the death Analytics

Yesterday the President of Russia Vladimir Putin signed the decree about creation of new structure on the MIA base – National Guard, which includes empowerments of MIA, partly FSB and FPS. National Guard is supposed to be equipped by heavy armament to be able to meet widespread  terror attacks.

Expert Anatoly Nesmiyan, know in internet as blogger El-Murid expressed the opinion about creation of new military structure and about undermeaning seen in this action.

“This is not reform of MID a la Medvedev, – Anatoly writes, – when plate was changed, with the change of plate there was re-attestation, all undesirable persons were fired and after it everything was left as it was before.  This time balance of uniformed services is changing, and very seriously by the way. New structure included empowerments from all structures and in such fair amount that it should result sharp discontent of FSB and MID.”

No one would like to be in Putin’s situation.

Expert supposes that Putin knowingly provokes conflict between military and security forces for staff turnover and renewal of powerful security structure. Of course, it creates disbalance and instability of the whole power vertical. However reasons which moved Vladimir Putin to this political venture can be more dangerous than reforming of uniformed services of Russia.

While there is crisis the part of Russian establishment which is neoliberal and connected with international finance centers and forces softly but the same time very clearly needs the change of administrative model. German Gref tells about this topic more clearly, he frankly urges to bring in Russia corporate mechanisms and technologies of management. Mikhail Khodorkovsky in his time was hold prisoner for 10 years for planning  of much gentler variant of reformatting of presidential republic into parliamentary.  It appears that Gref is absolutely calm for his future,  it means that Putin just has no power to stand against his grouping.

It is not a secret that this part of elite is dissatisfied by uniformed side of administrative vertical – neoliberals suppose that it is the uniformed service who is guilty for upcoming apocalypse, absolute greediness of authorized operatives who worked in district departments not so long time ago and who got such sums of money which they have never seen before. And sure their intellectual level does not correspond to positions they held.

El-Murid considers that uniformed services are subjected to grabbing more than liberals:

“It seems to me that Putin has problems with uniformed services also – it is evident that grabbing has crossed the line and Putin’s invocations, who spells “To grab. Less. It is necessary” on different sessions, do not result any system arrangements for at least grabbing’s ordering. This tells us that his influence on this part of elite is also purely perfunctory.”

If the circumstances were the same as before, such situation could be very comfortable for Putin: severe contradictions between “Kremlin’s towers” create the necessity in arbitrage, and the president’s person who stands above this fight and balances the situation. This was before and such system was OK for everybody.

But there is crisis now. And now one should make a choice – who will be “eaten” and in what turn. Not all will survive.  And in this case not arbiter is needed but teammate – and Putin is strictly demanded to make a decision. But he can’t, why – it is separate question, now the fact of this is more important. In such situation all tribes begin to express their discontent.

Only one consideration prevent any elite at any time and in any place from revolution: they all have smth to loose. Revolution is a roulette. In case you win you will keep what you had and will snag a little from the defeated (why just a little – because revolution is always collective actions of group of teammates and they all will snag the defeated). But if you are defeated – you will loose everything. And this simple consideration prevents The Supreme Diety from the hit of snuffbox on a temple better than any security police (*Translator’s mark: the author means the murder of Russian Emperor Pavel the First) . Up to a certain time.

However if situation is becoming worse and the Deity is inactive, sooner or later is happens that somebody makes a decision and as a rule, he uses support of powerful external force as a surety – and it helps him to improve his resource base. If we remember Russian revolutions – almost always they had international ambassadors’ support. Even in such absolutely family case as Rasputin’s murder, plotters found it necessary to ask support from Her British Majesty

Sanctions company of nowadays is considered by absolutely all players as disturbing factor which intensifies challenges and moves to definite actions. Who will be the first – will be a winner. This is very clear message and this message is from outside. Nobody disguises nothing – what for?

Here is an answer on the first question – in nowadays circumstances Putin is obliged not to trust anybody. Except for best of the best. But they are less than fingers on the hand.

That is why uniformed services’ discontent of suddenly appeared disbalance and the necessity to share the assets with new powerful structure – is less evil that real danger of palace revolution. Its possibility stays very high, but despot has nothing more to do in this situation. Only in democratic country selections  allow to solve such challenges respectively without any sacrifices, in despotism power is a life. In biologic meaning. What for you have your billion if you go almost on a scaffold of your own free will?

Herewith the West left no illusions to Putin – now he has to be a President till the death. Because alternative is also death. Or life which will not differ from death.