In 2016 a war between Russia and Turkey may start
Such are the conclusions drawn by the American analytical agency Stratfor. Recently this organization has issued a report with a forecast for the political and economic situation in the world in 2016. According to their estimations, the relationship between Russia and Turkey next year will continue to aggravate.
In 2016, Turkey will have to lead military action in the North of Syria. Among the plans of Turkish command, the main goal is the fight with Syrian Kurds and not with militants of ISIL (prohibited in Russia). Syrian Kurds at the moment are supported by Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. In case Turkey will move on to action in this direction, it may face Russian military forces, which are covering Syrian sky with S-400. Besides, Turkey will reinforce its presence in the North of Iraq. In general, according to the forecasts, Turkey will reinforce its influence in the region.
Stratfor also forecasts that activity of Turkey will lead to tense relationship between Iran and Russia. Russia does not want this conflict with Turkey, which has been announced on several occasions by President Vladimir Putin. This conflict is not in our interests because Turkey controls the Black and Mediterranean seas. However, analysts believe that the conflict is unavoidable. Russia has made it clear that after the incident with the plane SU-24, it will not allow the presence of Turkish air forces in Syria. Turkey is ready for the conflict, which is indispensable to explain to the population the decline in the recent quality of life as well as the fight with Kurd separatists. Stratfor warns that Russia is already involved in the conflict and its increase of forces does not comply with initial objectives.
All of this may well lead to a start of a full-scale war between Russia and Turkey in 2016.
It is worth reminding that a sharp decline in relationship between Russia and Turkey started when on the border between Syria and Turkey a Russian plane SU-24 was hit. Turkish government announced that they had attacked the Russian plane on purpose. As a response, economic sanctions against Turkey were introduced in Russia, some products were banned, and the flow of tourists was interrupted. Vladimir Putin recently announced that it is “almost impossible’ to come to an agreement with Turkish authorities.